In 2020, the industry suffered from the impact of the epidemic, but throughout the year, the basic development trend of the industry has not changed - consumption upgrading and brand concentration are still the keywords of the industry.

Analysis and judgment:

Resumption in 2020 - Under the impact of the epidemic, consumption upgrading continues and competition is clearly differentiated

First, consumption upgrading continues, and high-end demand is becoming more obvious.

In January and April, the industry began to recover, but the difference in demand between different price segments was more obvious.

2, the mid-range and below prices show weak demand, on the one hand, the Spring Festival inventory of consumers, on the other hand, the consumption power of the mass price is indeed affected.

3, the second high-end price continues to show strong demand, but in the price, the choice of brand, the difference between different enterprises is very obvious (Jiangsu is 400-700 yuan, Anhui is 200-300 yuan; In terms of brand, Henan and Shandong are the leading sauce wine, while Hebei is relatively scattered).

4, high-end prices show accelerated demand, and the unity of the price and brand is very strong: the country is 1,000 yuan price is Wuliangye and national cellar, 3,000 yuan is Moutai.

Second, the competition is clearly differentiated, the recovery resilience of advantageous enterprises is better after the epidemic, and the recovery of weak enterprises is relatively weak, from the perspective of brand concentration, the industry is accelerating the concentration.

Outlook for 2021 - The enterprises released the 14th Five-Year expectations, and the goal setting was basically reasonable

First, Moutai: The group level proposed a revenue target of 200 billion in 2025. For joint-stock companies, considering factors such as capacity constraints and the balance of volume and price, the compound revenue growth rate at the joint-stock company level may be about 12-13% in the next five years; But if series wine companies can get an acceleration, the growth rate is expected to continue to rise. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be 10%/14%/15% respectively, and the profit growth rate will be 12%/15%/16%, and the buy rating will be maintained.

Second, Wuliangye: the company is getting closer to the capacity limit, so the future volume increase will not be the core driving force of the enterprise, but the continuous price increase is relatively strong. Under the general trend of high-end expansion, Wuliangye will fully enjoy the industry dividend, and the second is to lead the industry high-end wine to continue to rise (Wuliangye will gradually reach 1,500 yuan, and the further future will be 2,000 yuan). It is estimated that 2021 will be a year of steady growth of Wuliangye's revenue and profit, but we judge that 2021 will be a year in which Wuliangye's enterprise quality and strategic pattern will be highly improved. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be 14%/17%/18%, and the profit growth rate will be 18%/20%/19%, and the buy rating will be maintained.

Third, Fenjiu: The company's strategy continues to upgrade, green 30 years sword refers to high-end, revenue also has 40 billion of the 14th Five-Year Plan target. Fenjiu has such potential, and we need long-term observation: first, the construction of the organization, 40 billion revenue needs a strong organization to support; Second, the upgrading of the brand, high-end wine is a slow work, need time to slowly mature; The third is the landing of the region, Fenjiu to prove that they can do deep areas, Henan, Shandong can achieve 1 billion, is an important observation point. In terms of 2021, Fenjiu will continue to achieve a high probability of rising volume and price, Bofen will continue to raise prices, while the amount of blue and white Fen increases, the price of blue and white 20/30 we judge will also rise to a new level, and annual revenue and profit are expected to continue to double exceed expectations. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be 17%, 20% and 22% respectively, and the profit growth rate will be 40%, 27% and 30%, and the buy rating will be maintained.

4. Gujinggong: Due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, we expect Gujinggong to lower its 2020 revenue growth target; If this is true, it is good for Gujinggong whether it is destocking or re-growth in 2021. From the perspective of competition pattern, Gujing Gong continues to consolidate high certainty in the province; From the perspective of product structure, Gujing Gong's Gu8 and above products continue to maintain high growth; From the perspective of long-term layout, the listing of the New Year's Eve continues to open the upper limit of the growth of Gujinggong, and continues to be firmly optimistic about Gujinggong in the medium and long term. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be 7%/21%/18%, and the profit growth rate will be 1%/27%/21%, and the buy rating will be maintained.

Fifth, the present destiny: Because of the recovery of Yanghe, the valuation of the present destiny has been depressed. But from the internal texture point of view, first of all, the certainty of the four open is strong, and it is still in continuous high growth; Secondly, because of the rise of Quarkai, it has opened up the consumption cognition and channel network of the present world in the province, which is the basis for the future sustainable growth of V3 and V9; Third, from the organizational point of view, the four open to the enterprise has brought a fighting organization, which is the fundamental guarantee for the long-term development of enterprises. This world has made the "fourteen fifth goal and then double" planning, the compound growth rate of about 15%, we judge that this is certainly not the ultimate goal of this world, the actual completion is likely to exceed this planning goal. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be 8%/25%/22%, and the profit growth rate will be 8%/24%/26%, and the buy rating will be maintained.

Yanghe: Focusing on M6+ Yanghe will basically complete the reform of enterprise fundamentals in 2020, and M6+ will reshape Yanghe's price benchmark position in the province. In the long run, the strategy of focusing on M6+ is absolutely correct, but the only uncertainty is that at present, the price positioning of M6+700 yuan is not in the current mainstream price of the industry, and it is difficult to nationwide volume in the short term. Therefore, the product strategy and efficiency of Yanghe in the market outside the province determine the performance growth elasticity of the enterprise in 2021. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be -4%, 10% and 11% respectively, and the profit growth rate will be 3%, 15% and 17%, and the buy rating will be maintained.

7. Kouzi Cellar: Like Gujing Gong, under the impact of the epidemic in 2020, sales losses during the Spring Festival are obvious; However, from a structural point of view, more than 10 products are estimated to still achieve a large double-digit growth in 2020, and the logic of consumption upgrading is also available here. From the internal texture point of view, the foundation of productionism is still deeply rooted in Anhui Province; From the perspective of enterprise improvement, whether it is the second-high-end attention, the focus of the product, or the strengthening of the organization, the mouth cellar is continuing to improve. After getting rid of the epidemic in 2021, it is expected that Kouzi cellar can return to its normal growth level, and the low base caused by the decline in 2020 is superimposed, and the annual revenue growth rate in 2021 is expected to increase rapidly. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be 11%, 16% and 12% respectively, and the profit growth rate will be -17.6%, 20% and 15%, and the buy rating will be maintained.

Eight, alcoholic wine: The annual growth of internal ginseng is expected to be 70%+ catalyzed the annual stock price increase. On the basic level, the province once again achieved a high growth rate, and the market is expected to gradually transfer the goods outside the province next year, it is expected to be able to give the overall internal participation increase to help. We judge that the overall internal participation of 1 billion + will be the market expectation. Overall revenue we expect to remain unchanged, with an estimated growth rate of nearly 40%, and continue to maintain a buy rating.